Uncertainty propagation in orbital mechanics via tensor decomposition     

Yifei?SunEmail author  Mrinal?Kumar 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2016,124(3):269-294

Uncertainty forecasting in orbital mechanics is an essential but difficult task, primarily because the underlying Fokker–Planck equation (FPE) is defined on a relatively high dimensional (6-D) state–space and is driven by the nonlinear perturbed Keplerian dynamics. In addition, an enormously large solution domain is required for numerical solution of this FPE (e.g. encompassing the entire orbit in the \(x-y-z\) subspace), of which the state probability density function (pdf) occupies a tiny fraction at any given time. This coupling of large size, high dimensionality and nonlinearity makes for a formidable computational task, and has caused the FPE for orbital uncertainty propagation to remain an unsolved problem. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents the first successful direct solution of the FPE for perturbed Keplerian mechanics. To tackle the dimensionality issue, the time-varying state pdf is approximated in the CANDECOMP/PARAFAC decomposition tensor form where all the six spatial dimensions as well as the time dimension are separated from one other. The pdf approximation for all times is obtained simultaneously via the alternating least squares algorithm. Chebyshev spectral differentiation is employed for discretization on account of its spectral (“super-fast”) convergence rate. To facilitate the tensor decomposition and control the solution domain size, system dynamics is expressed using spherical coordinates in a noninertial reference frame. Numerical results obtained on a regular personal computer are compared with Monte Carlo simulations.  相似文献   

Study of the Cosmic-Ray Modulation During the Passage of ICMEs and CIRs     

BadruddinEmail author  Anand?Kumar 《Solar physics》2016,291(2):559-580

We compare the cosmic-ray response to interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) during their passage in near-Earth space. We study the relative importance of various structures/features identified during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs observed during Cycle 23 (1995?–?2009). The identified ICME structures are the shock front, the sheath, and the CME ejecta. We isolate the shock arrival time, the passage of the sheath region, the arrival of ejecta, and the end time of their passage. Similarly, we isolate the CIR arrival, the associated forward shock, the stream interface, and the reverse shock during the passage of a CIR. For the cosmic-ray intensity, we utilize the data from high counting rate neutron monitors. In addition to neutron monitor data, we utilize near-simultaneous and same time-resolution data of interplanetary plasma and field, namely the solar-wind velocity, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector, and its variance. Further, we also utilize some derived interplanetary parameters. We apply the method of the superposed-epoch analysis. As the plasma and field properties are different during the passage of different structures, both in ICMEs and CIRs, we systematically vary the epoch time in our superposed-epoch analysis one by one. In this way, we study the role and effects of each of the identified individual structures/features during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs. Relating the properties of various structures and the corresponding variations in plasma and field parameters with changes of the cosmic-ray intensity, we identify the relative importance of the plasma/field parameters in influencing the amplitude and time profiles of the cosmic-ray intensity variations during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs.  相似文献   

Analysis of dry and wet climate characteristics at Uttarakhand (India) using effective drought index     

Malik  Anurag  Kumar  Anil  Kisi  Ozgur  Khan  Najeebullah  Salih  Sinan Q.  Yaseen  Zaher Mundher 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(2):1643-1662

Natural Hazards - Drought is a complex natural disaster that adversely affects human life and the ecosystem. A variety of drought indexes are available for monitoring meteorological drought events....  相似文献   

Avalanche hazard mitigation in east Karakoram mountains     

Singh  Amreek  Juyal  Vikas  Kumar  Bhupinder  Gusain  H. S.  Shekhar  M. S.  Singh  Paramvir  Kumar  Sanjeev  Negi  H. S. 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(1):643-665

Natural Hazards - Karakoram mountains range in north-western part of Himalayas is about 500 km in length and hosts some of the world’s highest peaks and longest glaciers. It is...  相似文献   

Evaluation of spatial probability of landslides using bivariate and multivariate approaches in the Goriganga valley,Kumaun Himalaya,India     

Kumar  Sandeep  Gupta  Vikram 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):2461-2478

Natural Hazards - In this study, new hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models were used for predicting the groundwater resource index. The salp swarm algorithm (SSA), particle swarm...  相似文献   

Correction to: Effect of time and space partitioning strategies of samples on regional landslide susceptibility modelling     

Khanna  Kirti  Martha  Tapas R.  Roy  Priyom  Kumar  K. Vinod 《Landslides》2021,18(6):2295-2296

Landslides - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01646-0.  相似文献   

Effect of time and space partitioning strategies of samples on regional landslide susceptibility modelling     

Khanna  Kirti  Martha  Tapas R.  Roy  Priyom  Kumar  K. Vinod 《Landslides》2021,18(6):2281-2294

Landslides - Assessment of the spatial probability of future landslide occurrences for disaster risk reduction is done through landslide susceptibility modelling. In this study, we investigated the...  相似文献   

Geospatial landslide inventory of India—an insight into occurrence and exposure on a national scale     

Martha  Tapas Ranjan  Roy  Priyom  Jain  Nirmala  Khanna  Kirti  Mrinalni  K.  Kumar  K. Vinod  Rao  P. V. N. 《Landslides》2021,18(6):2125-2141

Landslides - India ranks first in the world in terms of fatal landslides. Large vulnerable area (0.42 million km2), high population density and monsoon rainfall make India’s landslide...  相似文献   

Extenuating the parameters using HEC-HMS hydrological model for ungauged catchment in the central Omo-Gibe Basin of Ethiopia          下载免费PDF全文

Demisse Habtamu Semunigus  Ayalew Abebe Temesgen  Ayana Melkamu Teshome  Lohani Tarun Kumar 《地下水科学与工程》2021,9(4):317-325

Characteristics of ungauged catchments can be studied from the hydrological model parameters of gauged catchments. In this research, discharge prediction was carried out in ungauged catchments using HEC-HMS in the central Omo-Gibe basin. Linear regression, spatial proximity, area ratio, and sub-basin mean were amalgamated for regionalization. The regional model parameters of the gauged catchment and physical characteristics of ungauged catchments were collated together to develop the equations to predict discharge from ungauged catchments. From the sensitivity analysis, crop coefficient (CC), storage coefficient (R), constant rate (CR), and time of concentration (TC) are found to be more sensitive than others. The model efficiency was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (N_SE) which was greater than 0.75, varying between ?10% and +10% and the coefficient of determination (R²) was approximated to be 0.8 during the calibration and validation period. The model parameters in ungauged catchments were determined using the regional model (linear regression), sub-basin mean, area ratio, and spatial proximity methods, and the discharge was simulated using the HEC-HMS model. Linear regression was used in the prediction where p-value ≤ 0.1, determination coefficient (R²) = 0.91 for crop coefficient (CC) and 0.99 for maximum deficit (MD). Constant rate (CR), maximum storage (MS), initial storage (IS), storage coefficient (R), and time of concentration (TC) were obtained. The result is that an average of 30 m³/s and 15 m³/s as the maximum monthly simulated flow for ungauged sub-catchments, i.e. Denchiya and Mansa of the main river basin .  相似文献   

Atmospheric motion vector retrieval using improved tracer selection algorithm     

Inderpreet Kaur  S. K. Deb  C. M. Kishtawal  P. K. Pal  Raj Kumar 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,119(1-2):299-312

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